Europe needs more highly skilled people

Forecast until 2015, based on a skills needs analysis
 
According to a survey carried out by Cedefop, Europe will gradually need better educated people in all sectors. By 2015 some 13 million new jobs are expected, mainly for people with university and vocational education and training.

“What should I learn to be sure of getting a good job?” Most counsellors have undoubtedly often been asked this question by clients who cannot make up their minds about precisely what to study but who definitely want to learn at least something which offers an interesting and/or a secure future.

Counsellors have, until now, had two main options in formulating an answer: to tell their clients simply that it is very difficult to tell because the world is constantly changing or to formulate an answer built on the reality as it is at the time with all the ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’ it involves.

Cedefop (The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training) has now come up with some answers to this question, which are based on scientific research covering the whole of Europe. In cooperation with the Institute for Employment Research (IER) at University of Warwick, Cambridge Econometrics (CE), the Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA) in Maastricht and Cedefop’s Skillsnet network of over 60 country experts, Cedefop has published a report of a medium term (until 2015) forecast of occupational skills needs in Europe.

According to the report, substantial change is in prospect. “In total, EU-25 (the EU Member States, excluding Bulgaria and Romania, for which data is not yet available) plus Norway and Switzerland expect to see a net increase of more than 13 million jobs between 2006 and 2015. This is despite losing well over 2 million jobs in the primary sector and half a million in manufacturing.

The distribution and transport sector, including hotels and catering, will create more than 3 million jobs in the coming decade, while employment in non-marketed services, including health and education, is projected to grow at a similar rate. The best prospects for employment lie in business and miscellaneous services with almost 9 million being created.

Even ‘simple tasks’ will demand more training

Sectoral employment will change, as will the demands within each sector for skilled and highly skilled people, thus requiring more education and training. It seems that regardless of the sector and how “simple” a task may be seen, the demands for training those people carrying them out will increase rapidly. The report states that the total employment increase in Europe between 2006 and 2015 comprises more than 12.5 million additional jobs at the highest qualification level and a further almost 9.5 million jobs at medium level, including vocational qualifications.

However, jobs for those with low qualifications will fall by 8.5 million. In 2015, around 30 % of jobs will need high qualifications, and 50 % medium qualifications. The demand for low qualifications will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20 %. Qualification requirements are expected to increase in all occupational groups at the expense of low-skilled workers.

High qualifications will be needed most in non-manual occupations. More and more medium qualifications will be required in skilled manual occupations. However, higher and medium qualifications will be increasingly required even in elementary occupations, which include more simple and routine tasks.

The service sector will expand fastest

The simple answer a counsellor can give his or her clients is therefore “learn as much as you possibly can and, according to your preferences and abilities, obtain a university or a vocational training qualification and be prepared to continue adding on to your learning for as long as you live."

The service sector is most likely to offer many and varied jobs, especially professional and business services. Services in education and health are also likely to expand as the population ages and needs more and more education.

Nevertheless one should not forget that the primary and manufacturing sectors will remain viable sources of jobs. Furthermore, there is a high replacement demand (to replace workers leaving for retirement or other reasons) also for those occupations where employment tends to decrease.

The next step for Cedefop will be to improve data and methods, get more detailed information and to look further into the future. A call for tender was launched in summer 2008 to further develop and carry out forecasts of skill demand and supply in Europe and related analyses. The work is set to continue over the next few years and will be carried out for all EU Member States but potential also exists for information from other countries.

Although such forecasts have to be interpreted carefully, counsellors may be in a position to provide more detailed answers to their clients’ burning question of what to study – either in higher education or in vocational training.

The report can be downloaded from Cedefop’s website
Future Skill Needs in Europe – Medium-Term Forecast

Dóra Stefánsdóttir, Euroguidance Iceland


CEDEFOP
Cedefop is the European Agency to promote the development of vocational education and training (VET) in the European Union.